SGE vs BVB
Eintracht Frankfurt (home) vs Borussia Dortmund · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SGE win 25.1% fair 3.98
Draw 21.1% fair 4.73
BVB win 53.8% fair 1.86
Expected Goals
SGE
1.30
—
2.11
BVB
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.2% | fair 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.8% | fair 2.96 |
| Both teams to score | 63.8% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| SGE 1-2 BVB | 9.6% | |
| SGE 1-1 BVB | 9.1% | |
| SGE 0-2 BVB | 7.4% | |
| SGE 0-1 BVB | 7.0% | |
| SGE 1-3 BVB | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: SGE goals · Columns: BVB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).