SGE vs ELV
Eintracht Frankfurt (home) vs SV Elversberg · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SGE win 51.7% fair 1.93
Draw 20.5% fair 4.88
ELV win 27.8% fair 3.60
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 53.2% / 19.8% / 27.0%.
Expected Goals
SGE
2.31
—
1.63
ELV
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.3% | fair 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 24.7% | fair 4.04 |
| Both teams to score | 72.4% | fair 1.38 |
Most Likely Scores
| SGE 2-1 ELV | 8.5% | |
| SGE 1-1 ELV | 7.3% | |
| SGE 2-2 ELV | 6.9% | |
| SGE 3-1 ELV | 6.5% | |
| SGE 1-2 ELV | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Rows: SGE goals · Columns: ELV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).