SGE vs SCF
Eintracht Frankfurt (home) vs SC Freiburg · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
SGE win 46.1% fair 2.17
Draw 21.3% fair 4.69
SCF win 32.6% fair 3.06
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 46.4% / 20.9% / 32.7%.
Expected Goals
SGE
2.10
—
1.75
SCF
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.8% | fair 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26.2% | fair 3.82 |
| Both teams to score | 72.4% | fair 1.38 |
Most Likely Scores
| SGE 2-1 SCF | 8.2% | |
| SGE 1-1 SCF | 7.8% | |
| SGE 2-2 SCF | 7.2% | |
| SGE 1-2 SCF | 6.9% | |
| SGE 3-1 SCF | 5.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Rows: SGE goals · Columns: SCF goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).