SGE vs BMG
Eintracht Frankfurt (home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SGE win 52.7% fair 1.90
Draw 20.4% fair 4.90
BMG win 26.9% fair 3.72
Expected Goals
SGE
2.29
—
1.57
BMG
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.0% | fair 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26.0% | fair 3.85 |
| Both teams to score | 71.2% | fair 1.41 |
Most Likely Scores
| SGE 2-1 BMG | 8.7% | |
| SGE 1-1 BMG | 7.6% | |
| SGE 2-2 BMG | 6.8% | |
| SGE 3-1 BMG | 6.6% | |
| SGE 1-2 BMG | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Rows: SGE goals · Columns: BMG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).