SGE vs HSV
Eintracht Frankfurt (home) vs Hamburger SV · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
SGE win 49.9% fair 2.00
Draw 21.8% fair 4.59
HSV win 28.3% fair 3.54
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 51.0% / 21.4% / 27.6%.
Expected Goals
SGE
2.04
—
1.46
HSV
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.8% | fair 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.2% | fair 3.11 |
| Both teams to score | 66.7% | fair 1.50 |
Most Likely Scores
| SGE 2-1 HSV | 9.2% | |
| SGE 1-1 HSV | 9.0% | |
| SGE 2-2 HSV | 6.7% | |
| SGE 1-2 HSV | 6.6% | |
| SGE 2-0 HSV | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SGE goals · Columns: HSV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).