SGE vs HSV
Eintracht Frankfurt (home) vs Hamburger SV · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SGE win 50.1% fair 2.00
Draw 22.0% fair 4.54
HSV win 27.9% fair 3.58
Expected Goals
SGE
1.98
—
1.41
HSV
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.0% | fair 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.0% | fair 2.94 |
| Both teams to score | 65.2% | fair 1.53 |
Most Likely Scores
| SGE 1-1 HSV | 9.4% | |
| SGE 2-1 HSV | 9.3% | |
| SGE 1-0 HSV | 6.6% | |
| SGE 1-2 HSV | 6.6% | |
| SGE 2-0 HSV | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.4 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SGE goals · Columns: HSV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).