SGE vs TSG
Eintracht Frankfurt (home) vs TSG Hoffenheim · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SGE win 36.7% fair 2.73
Draw 20.7% fair 4.82
TSG win 42.6% fair 2.35
Expected Goals
SGE
1.94
—
2.16
TSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.6% | fair 1.29 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 22.4% | fair 4.47 |
| Both teams to score | 75.8% | fair 1.32 |
Most Likely Scores
| SGE 1-2 TSG | 7.5% | |
| SGE 2-2 TSG | 7.3% | |
| SGE 1-1 TSG | 6.9% | |
| SGE 2-1 TSG | 6.7% | |
| SGE 1-3 TSG | 5.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
Rows: SGE goals · Columns: TSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).