SGE vs TSG
Eintracht Frankfurt (home) vs TSG Hoffenheim · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
SGE win 38.4% fair 2.60
Draw 21.0% fair 4.77
TSG win 40.6% fair 2.46
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.5% / 20.5% / 42.0%.
Expected Goals
SGE
1.98
—
2.09
TSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.2% | fair 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 22.8% | fair 4.38 |
| Both teams to score | 75.5% | fair 1.32 |
Most Likely Scores
| SGE 1-2 TSG | 7.4% | |
| SGE 2-2 TSG | 7.3% | |
| SGE 1-1 TSG | 7.1% | |
| SGE 2-1 TSG | 7.0% | |
| SGE 1-3 TSG | 5.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
Rows: SGE goals · Columns: TSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).