SGE vs KOE
Eintracht Frankfurt (home) vs 1. FC Köln · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
SGE win 50.4% fair 1.99
Draw 20.5% fair 4.87
KOE win 29.1% fair 3.44
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 51.5% / 19.9% / 28.6%.
Expected Goals
SGE
2.29
—
1.70
KOE
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.1% | fair 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 23.9% | fair 4.18 |
| Both teams to score | 73.4% | fair 1.36 |
Most Likely Scores
| SGE 2-1 KOE | 8.3% | |
| SGE 1-1 KOE | 7.2% | |
| SGE 2-2 KOE | 7.0% | |
| SGE 3-1 KOE | 6.3% | |
| SGE 1-2 KOE | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Rows: SGE goals · Columns: KOE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).