SGE vs B04
Eintracht Frankfurt (home) vs Bayer Leverkusen · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SGE win 31.1% fair 3.22
Draw 20.2% fair 4.95
B04 win 48.7% fair 2.05
Expected Goals
SGE
1.77
—
2.33
B04
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.6% | fair 1.29 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 22.4% | fair 4.47 |
| Both teams to score | 74.9% | fair 1.33 |
Most Likely Scores
| SGE 1-2 B04 | 8.0% | |
| SGE 2-2 B04 | 7.0% | |
| SGE 1-1 B04 | 6.8% | |
| SGE 1-3 B04 | 6.2% | |
| SGE 2-1 B04 | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 2.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 2.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
Rows: SGE goals · Columns: B04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).