SGE vs M05
Eintracht Frankfurt (home) vs Mainz 05 · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SGE win 45.5% fair 2.20
Draw 21.6% fair 4.64
M05 win 32.9% fair 3.04
Expected Goals
SGE
2.03
—
1.71
M05
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.0% | fair 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.0% | fair 3.58 |
| Both teams to score | 71.1% | fair 1.41 |
Most Likely Scores
| SGE 2-1 M05 | 8.4% | |
| SGE 1-1 M05 | 8.3% | |
| SGE 2-2 M05 | 7.2% | |
| SGE 1-2 M05 | 7.1% | |
| SGE 3-1 M05 | 5.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Rows: SGE goals · Columns: M05 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).