SGE vs SCP
Eintracht Frankfurt (home) vs SC Paderborn · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SGE win 52.2% fair 1.92
Draw 21.4% fair 4.67
SCP win 26.4% fair 3.79
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 53.8% / 20.9% / 25.3%.
Expected Goals
SGE
2.12
—
1.41
SCP
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.4% | fair 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.6% | fair 3.17 |
| Both teams to score | 66.5% | fair 1.50 |
Most Likely Scores
| SGE 2-1 SCP | 9.3% | |
| SGE 1-1 SCP | 8.8% | |
| SGE 2-0 SCP | 6.6% | |
| SGE 3-1 SCP | 6.6% | |
| SGE 2-2 SCP | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: SGE goals · Columns: SCP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).