SGE vs S04
Eintracht Frankfurt (home) vs Schalke 04 · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SGE win 49.4% fair 2.02
Draw 22.7% fair 4.41
S04 win 27.9% fair 3.58
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.5% / 22.4% / 27.1%.
Expected Goals
SGE
1.89
—
1.34
S04
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.6% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.4% | fair 2.67 |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| SGE 1-1 S04 | 10.0% | |
| SGE 2-1 S04 | 9.5% | |
| SGE 1-0 S04 | 7.5% | |
| SGE 2-0 S04 | 7.1% | |
| SGE 1-2 S04 | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SGE goals · Columns: S04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).