SGE vs FCU
Eintracht Frankfurt (home) vs Union Berlin · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SGE win 51.6% fair 1.94
Draw 21.4% fair 4.68
FCU win 27.1% fair 3.70
Expected Goals
SGE
2.10
—
1.45
FCU
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.8% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.2% | fair 3.21 |
| Both teams to score | 67.2% | fair 1.49 |
Most Likely Scores
| SGE 2-1 FCU | 9.2% | |
| SGE 1-1 FCU | 8.7% | |
| SGE 2-2 FCU | 6.7% | |
| SGE 3-1 FCU | 6.4% | |
| SGE 2-0 FCU | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: SGE goals · Columns: FCU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).