SCF vs FCA
SC Freiburg (home) vs FC Augsburg · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCF win 51.6% fair 1.94
Draw 21.3% fair 4.70
FCA win 27.1% fair 3.69
Expected Goals
SCF
2.12
—
1.46
FCA
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.4% | fair 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.6% | fair 3.26 |
| Both teams to score | 67.6% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCF 2-1 FCA | 9.1% | |
| SCF 1-1 FCA | 8.6% | |
| SCF 2-2 FCA | 6.7% | |
| SCF 3-1 FCA | 6.4% | |
| SCF 1-2 FCA | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: SCF goals · Columns: FCA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).