SCF vs BAY
SC Freiburg (home) vs Bayern Munich · model confidence 83%
Match Outcome
SCF win 17.9% fair 5.60
Draw 16.7% fair 5.97
BAY win 65.4% fair 1.53
Expected Goals
SCF
1.27
—
2.79
BAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.0% | fair 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 23.0% | fair 4.35 |
| Both teams to score | 67.4% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCF 1-2 BAY | 8.5% | |
| SCF 1-3 BAY | 7.9% | |
| SCF 0-2 BAY | 6.7% | |
| SCF 0-3 BAY | 6.3% | |
| SCF 1-1 BAY | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 4.2 |
| 1 | 2.2 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 5.4 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: SCF goals · Columns: BAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).