SCF vs BAY
SC Freiburg (home) vs Bayern Munich · model confidence 85% · pregame locked (10-25 · FT 1-3 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
SCF win 19.7% fair 5.07
Draw 17.9% fair 5.60
BAY win 62.4% fair 1.60
Expected Goals
SCF
1.32
—
2.62
BAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.2% | fair 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 24.8% | fair 4.03 |
| Both teams to score | 67.8% | fair 1.47 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCF 1-2 BAY | 8.8% | |
| SCF 1-3 BAY | 7.7% | |
| SCF 1-1 BAY | 6.7% | |
| SCF 0-2 BAY | 6.7% | |
| SCF 0-3 BAY | 5.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 3.4 |
| 1 | 2.6 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 4.4 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 2.9 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SCF goals · Columns: BAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).