SCF vs SVW
SC Freiburg (home) vs Werder Bremen · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
SCF win 52.8% fair 1.89
Draw 22.3% fair 4.49
SVW win 24.9% fair 4.02
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 54.3% / 22.0% / 23.7%.
Expected Goals
SCF
1.95
—
1.22
SVW
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.3% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.7% | fair 2.58 |
| Both teams to score | 60.4% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCF 1-1 SVW | 10.0% | |
| SCF 2-1 SVW | 9.7% | |
| SCF 1-0 SVW | 8.2% | |
| SCF 2-0 SVW | 8.0% | |
| SCF 3-1 SVW | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCF goals · Columns: SVW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).