SCF vs BVB
SC Freiburg (home) vs Borussia Dortmund · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCF win 31.1% fair 3.22
Draw 23.9% fair 4.19
BVB win 45.1% fair 2.22
Expected Goals
SCF
1.30
—
1.69
BVB
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.5% | fair 2.35 |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCF 1-1 BVB | 11.1% | |
| SCF 1-2 BVB | 9.3% | |
| SCF 0-1 BVB | 8.5% | |
| SCF 2-1 BVB | 7.2% | |
| SCF 0-2 BVB | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCF goals · Columns: BVB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).