SCF vs ELV
SC Freiburg (home) vs SV Elversberg · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCF win 57.8% fair 1.73
Draw 20.0% fair 4.99
ELV win 22.2% fair 4.50
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 60.4% / 19.3% / 20.3%.
Expected Goals
SCF
2.33
—
1.30
ELV
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.2% | fair 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.8% | fair 3.35 |
| Both teams to score | 65.6% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCF 2-1 ELV | 9.4% | |
| SCF 1-1 ELV | 8.0% | |
| SCF 3-1 ELV | 7.3% | |
| SCF 2-0 ELV | 7.2% | |
| SCF 1-0 ELV | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: SCF goals · Columns: ELV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).