SCF vs BMG
SC Freiburg (home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
SCF win 48.3% fair 2.07
Draw 23.2% fair 4.32
BMG win 28.5% fair 3.50
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.0% / 23.0% / 28.0%.
Expected Goals
SCF
1.81
—
1.31
BMG
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.3% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.7% | fair 2.52 |
| Both teams to score | 61.1% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCF 1-1 BMG | 10.5% | |
| SCF 2-1 BMG | 9.5% | |
| SCF 1-0 BMG | 8.0% | |
| SCF 2-0 BMG | 7.2% | |
| SCF 1-2 BMG | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCF goals · Columns: BMG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).