SCF vs TSG
SC Freiburg (home) vs TSG Hoffenheim · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
SCF win 37.9% fair 2.64
Draw 22.2% fair 4.51
TSG win 40.0% fair 2.50
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.0% / 21.9% / 41.2%.
Expected Goals
SCF
1.75
—
1.86
TSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.9% | fair 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.1% | fair 3.32 |
| Both teams to score | 69.7% | fair 1.43 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCF 1-1 TSG | 8.8% | |
| SCF 1-2 TSG | 8.2% | |
| SCF 2-1 TSG | 7.7% | |
| SCF 2-2 TSG | 7.2% | |
| SCF 1-3 TSG | 5.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: SCF goals · Columns: TSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).