SCF vs TSG
SC Freiburg (home) vs TSG Hoffenheim · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCF win 43.9% fair 2.28
Draw 21.8% fair 4.59
TSG win 34.3% fair 2.92
Expected Goals
SCF
1.96
—
1.72
TSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.1% | fair 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.9% | fair 3.46 |
| Both teams to score | 70.5% | fair 1.42 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCF 1-1 TSG | 8.5% | |
| SCF 2-1 TSG | 8.3% | |
| SCF 1-2 TSG | 7.3% | |
| SCF 2-2 TSG | 7.2% | |
| SCF 3-1 TSG | 5.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Rows: SCF goals · Columns: TSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).