SCF vs KOE
SC Freiburg (home) vs 1. FC Köln · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCF win 54.9% fair 1.82
Draw 21.3% fair 4.70
KOE win 23.8% fair 4.20
Expected Goals
SCF
2.09
—
1.27
KOE
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.3% | fair 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.7% | fair 2.88 |
| Both teams to score | 63.0% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCF 2-1 KOE | 9.6% | |
| SCF 1-1 KOE | 9.2% | |
| SCF 2-0 KOE | 7.6% | |
| SCF 1-0 KOE | 7.3% | |
| SCF 3-1 KOE | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SCF goals · Columns: KOE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).