SCF vs RBL
SC Freiburg (home) vs RB Leipzig · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
SCF win 34.6% fair 2.89
Draw 22.2% fair 4.51
RBL win 43.3% fair 2.31
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 33.2% / 21.9% / 44.9%.
Expected Goals
SCF
1.63
—
1.91
RBL
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.6% | fair 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.4% | fair 3.18 |
| Both teams to score | 68.4% | fair 1.46 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCF 1-1 RBL | 9.0% | |
| SCF 1-2 RBL | 8.6% | |
| SCF 2-1 RBL | 7.3% | |
| SCF 2-2 RBL | 7.0% | |
| SCF 0-1 RBL | 5.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SCF goals · Columns: RBL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).