SCF vs RBL
SC Freiburg (home) vs RB Leipzig · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCF win 35.4% fair 2.83
Draw 21.8% fair 4.58
RBL win 42.8% fair 2.34
Expected Goals
SCF
1.71
—
1.95
RBL
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.8% | fair 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.2% | fair 3.42 |
| Both teams to score | 70.3% | fair 1.42 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCF 1-1 RBL | 8.6% | |
| SCF 1-2 RBL | 8.4% | |
| SCF 2-1 RBL | 7.3% | |
| SCF 2-2 RBL | 7.2% | |
| SCF 1-3 RBL | 5.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: SCF goals · Columns: RBL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).