SCF vs B04
SC Freiburg (home) vs Bayer Leverkusen · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCF win 38.2% fair 2.62
Draw 22.0% fair 4.55
B04 win 39.8% fair 2.51
Expected Goals
SCF
1.78
—
1.86
B04
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.5% | fair 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.5% | fair 3.39 |
| Both teams to score | 70.2% | fair 1.42 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCF 1-1 B04 | 8.7% | |
| SCF 1-2 B04 | 8.1% | |
| SCF 2-1 B04 | 7.7% | |
| SCF 2-2 B04 | 7.2% | |
| SCF 1-3 B04 | 5.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: SCF goals · Columns: B04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).