SCF vs M05
SC Freiburg (home) vs Mainz 05 · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCF win 52.2% fair 1.92
Draw 21.7% fair 4.62
M05 win 26.2% fair 3.82
Expected Goals
SCF
2.04
—
1.36
M05
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.1% | fair 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.9% | fair 2.95 |
| Both teams to score | 64.7% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCF 2-1 M05 | 9.4% | |
| SCF 1-1 M05 | 9.2% | |
| SCF 2-0 M05 | 6.9% | |
| SCF 1-0 M05 | 6.8% | |
| SCF 2-2 M05 | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SCF goals · Columns: M05 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).