SCF vs SCP
SC Freiburg (home) vs SC Paderborn · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCF win 57.8% fair 1.73
Draw 20.9% fair 4.78
SCP win 21.3% fair 4.69
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 60.4% / 20.3% / 19.3%.
Expected Goals
SCF
2.13
—
1.12
SCP
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.2% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.8% | fair 2.72 |
| Both teams to score | 59.5% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCF 2-1 SCP | 9.8% | |
| SCF 1-1 SCP | 9.2% | |
| SCF 2-0 SCP | 8.8% | |
| SCF 1-0 SCP | 8.2% | |
| SCF 3-1 SCP | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCF goals · Columns: SCP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).