SCF vs S04
SC Freiburg (home) vs Schalke 04 · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
SCF win 52.4% fair 1.91
Draw 21.9% fair 4.57
S04 win 25.7% fair 3.90
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 54.5% / 21.4% / 24.1%.
Expected Goals
SCF
2.04
—
1.29
S04
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.7% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.3% | fair 2.83 |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCF 2-1 S04 | 9.6% | |
| SCF 1-1 S04 | 9.4% | |
| SCF 2-0 S04 | 7.4% | |
| SCF 1-0 S04 | 7.3% | |
| SCF 3-1 S04 | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SCF goals · Columns: S04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).