SCF vs VFB
SC Freiburg (home) vs VfB Stuttgart · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCF win 42.0% fair 2.38
Draw 22.4% fair 4.47
VFB win 35.7% fair 2.80
Expected Goals
SCF
1.82
—
1.69
VFB
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.1% | fair 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.9% | fair 3.14 |
| Both teams to score | 68.4% | fair 1.46 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCF 1-1 VFB | 9.2% | |
| SCF 2-1 VFB | 8.4% | |
| SCF 1-2 VFB | 7.7% | |
| SCF 2-2 VFB | 7.1% | |
| SCF 1-0 VFB | 5.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SCF goals · Columns: VFB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).