SCF vs FCU
SC Freiburg (home) vs Union Berlin · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCF win 57.6% fair 1.74
Draw 20.9% fair 4.78
FCU win 21.4% fair 4.66
Expected Goals
SCF
2.12
—
1.16
FCU
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.5% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.5% | fair 2.74 |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCF 2-1 FCU | 9.8% | |
| SCF 1-1 FCU | 9.3% | |
| SCF 2-0 FCU | 8.5% | |
| SCF 1-0 FCU | 8.0% | |
| SCF 3-1 FCU | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCF goals · Columns: FCU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).