SCF vs FCU
SC Freiburg (home) vs Union Berlin · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
SCF win 49.2% fair 2.03
Draw 22.6% fair 4.42
FCU win 28.2% fair 3.55
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.0% / 22.4% / 27.6%.
Expected Goals
SCF
1.89
—
1.35
FCU
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.9% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.1% | fair 2.69 |
| Both teams to score | 63.0% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCF 1-1 FCU | 10.0% | |
| SCF 2-1 FCU | 9.4% | |
| SCF 1-0 FCU | 7.4% | |
| SCF 2-0 FCU | 7.0% | |
| SCF 1-2 FCU | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.0 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SCF goals · Columns: FCU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).