BMG vs FCA
Borussia Mönchengladbach (home) vs FC Augsburg · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BMG win 37.7% fair 2.65
Draw 22.3% fair 4.47
FCA win 39.9% fair 2.50
Expected Goals
BMG
1.72
—
1.82
FCA
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.6% | fair 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.4% | fair 3.18 |
| Both teams to score | 68.7% | fair 1.46 |
Most Likely Scores
| BMG 1-1 FCA | 9.1% | |
| BMG 1-2 FCA | 8.3% | |
| BMG 2-1 FCA | 7.8% | |
| BMG 2-2 FCA | 7.1% | |
| BMG 0-1 FCA | 5.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BMG goals · Columns: FCA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).