BMG vs BAY
Borussia Mönchengladbach (home) vs Bayern Munich · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BMG win 11.5% fair 8.73
Draw 12.6% fair 7.92
BAY win 75.9% fair 1.32
Expected Goals
BMG
1.05
—
3.31
BAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 81.0% | fair 1.23 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 19.0% | fair 5.26 |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| BMG 1-3 BAY | 8.1% | |
| BMG 0-3 BAY | 7.7% | |
| BMG 1-2 BAY | 7.4% | |
| BMG 0-2 BAY | 7.0% | |
| BMG 1-4 BAY | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 8.3 |
| 1 | 1.3 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 8.7 |
| 2 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 4.6 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: BMG goals · Columns: BAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).