BMG vs SVW
Borussia Mönchengladbach (home) vs Werder Bremen · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BMG win 41.3% fair 2.42
Draw 23.0% fair 4.34
SVW win 35.6% fair 2.81
Expected Goals
BMG
1.72
—
1.60
SVW
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.4% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.6% | fair 2.81 |
| Both teams to score | 65.5% | fair 1.53 |
Most Likely Scores
| BMG 1-1 SVW | 10.0% | |
| BMG 2-1 SVW | 8.5% | |
| BMG 1-2 SVW | 8.0% | |
| BMG 2-2 SVW | 6.8% | |
| BMG 1-0 SVW | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BMG goals · Columns: SVW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).