BMG vs BVB
Borussia Mönchengladbach (home) vs Borussia Dortmund · model confidence 80%
Match Outcome
BMG win 24.5% fair 4.07
Draw 22.2% fair 4.50
BVB win 53.3% fair 1.88
Expected Goals
BMG
1.13
—
1.94
BVB
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.7% | fair 2.46 |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| BMG 1-1 BVB | 10.2% | |
| BMG 1-2 BVB | 9.9% | |
| BMG 0-1 BVB | 9.0% | |
| BMG 0-2 BVB | 8.7% | |
| BMG 1-3 BVB | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BMG goals · Columns: BVB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).