BMG vs BVB
Borussia Mönchengladbach (home) vs Borussia Dortmund · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BMG win 20.9% fair 4.78
Draw 20.8% fair 4.80
BVB win 58.2% fair 1.72
Expected Goals
BMG
1.06
—
2.09
BVB
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.0% | fair 2.56 |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| BMG 1-2 BVB | 9.9% | |
| BMG 1-1 BVB | 9.5% | |
| BMG 0-2 BVB | 9.4% | |
| BMG 0-1 BVB | 9.0% | |
| BMG 1-3 BVB | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: BMG goals · Columns: BVB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).