BMG vs ELV
Borussia Mönchengladbach (home) vs SV Elversberg · model confidence 64%
Match Outcome
BMG win 49.2% fair 2.03
Draw 22.9% fair 4.36
ELV win 27.8% fair 3.59
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.7% / 22.6% / 26.7%.
Expected Goals
BMG
1.86
—
1.29
ELV
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.1% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.9% | fair 2.57 |
| Both teams to score | 61.3% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| BMG 1-1 ELV | 10.3% | |
| BMG 2-1 ELV | 9.6% | |
| BMG 1-0 ELV | 7.9% | |
| BMG 2-0 ELV | 7.4% | |
| BMG 1-2 ELV | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.3 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BMG goals · Columns: ELV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).