BMG vs ELV
Borussia Mönchengladbach (home) vs SV Elversberg · model confidence 65% · pregame locked (09-05 · FT 3-4 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
BMG win 47.0% fair 2.13
Draw 23.2% fair 4.31
ELV win 29.8% fair 3.35
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.7% / 23.0% / 29.3%.
Expected Goals
BMG
1.80
—
1.37
ELV
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.3% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.7% | fair 2.58 |
| Both teams to score | 62.2% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| BMG 1-1 ELV | 10.4% | |
| BMG 2-1 ELV | 9.3% | |
| BMG 1-0 ELV | 7.6% | |
| BMG 1-2 ELV | 7.1% | |
| BMG 2-0 ELV | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.4 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BMG goals · Columns: ELV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).