BMG vs SGE
Borussia Mönchengladbach (home) vs Eintracht Frankfurt · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BMG win 39.5% fair 2.53
Draw 21.6% fair 4.62
SGE win 38.8% fair 2.58
Expected Goals
BMG
1.89
—
1.90
SGE
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.9% | fair 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.1% | fair 3.70 |
| Both teams to score | 72.2% | fair 1.39 |
Most Likely Scores
| BMG 1-1 SGE | 8.1% | |
| BMG 1-2 SGE | 7.7% | |
| BMG 2-1 SGE | 7.6% | |
| BMG 2-2 SGE | 7.3% | |
| BMG 1-3 SGE | 4.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Rows: BMG goals · Columns: SGE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).