BMG vs SCF
Borussia Mönchengladbach (home) vs SC Freiburg · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BMG win 32.0% fair 3.13
Draw 22.3% fair 4.48
SCF win 45.7% fair 2.19
Expected Goals
BMG
1.51
—
1.92
SCF
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.5% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.5% | fair 2.98 |
| Both teams to score | 66.4% | fair 1.51 |
Most Likely Scores
| BMG 1-1 SCF | 9.4% | |
| BMG 1-2 SCF | 9.0% | |
| BMG 2-1 SCF | 7.1% | |
| BMG 2-2 SCF | 6.8% | |
| BMG 0-1 SCF | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BMG goals · Columns: SCF goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).