BMG vs HSV
Borussia Mönchengladbach (home) vs Hamburger SV · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BMG win 43.0% fair 2.33
Draw 24.0% fair 4.16
HSV win 33.0% fair 3.03
Expected Goals
BMG
1.62
—
1.40
HSV
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.8% | fair 2.39 |
| Both teams to score | 60.4% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| BMG 1-1 HSV | 11.1% | |
| BMG 2-1 HSV | 9.0% | |
| BMG 1-0 HSV | 7.9% | |
| BMG 1-2 HSV | 7.7% | |
| BMG 0-1 HSV | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BMG goals · Columns: HSV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).