BMG vs TSG
Borussia Mönchengladbach (home) vs TSG Hoffenheim · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
BMG win 33.6% fair 2.97
Draw 23.0% fair 4.36
TSG win 43.4% fair 2.30
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 32.0% / 22.8% / 45.2%.
Expected Goals
BMG
1.49
—
1.80
TSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.8% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.2% | fair 2.76 |
| Both teams to score | 64.6% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| BMG 1-1 TSG | 10.0% | |
| BMG 1-2 TSG | 9.0% | |
| BMG 2-1 TSG | 7.4% | |
| BMG 0-1 TSG | 6.7% | |
| BMG 2-2 TSG | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: BMG goals · Columns: TSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).