BMG vs TSG
Borussia Mönchengladbach (home) vs TSG Hoffenheim · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (10-18 · FT 1-2 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
BMG win 31.7% fair 3.16
Draw 22.4% fair 4.47
TSG win 45.9% fair 2.18
Expected Goals
BMG
1.48
—
1.91
TSG
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): BMG ×0.900 (matched 10), TSG ×0.900 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.9% | fair 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.1% | fair 2.93 |
| Both teams to score | 65.9% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| BMG 1-1 TSG | 9.5% | |
| BMG 1-2 TSG | 9.1% | |
| BMG 2-1 TSG | 7.1% | |
| BMG 2-2 TSG | 6.7% | |
| BMG 0-1 TSG | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: BMG goals · Columns: TSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).