BMG vs KOE
Borussia Mönchengladbach (home) vs 1. FC Köln · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BMG win 41.4% fair 2.41
Draw 23.2% fair 4.31
KOE win 35.4% fair 2.82
Expected Goals
BMG
1.70
—
1.58
KOE
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.5% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.5% | fair 2.74 |
| Both teams to score | 64.8% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| BMG 1-1 KOE | 10.1% | |
| BMG 2-1 KOE | 8.6% | |
| BMG 1-2 KOE | 8.0% | |
| BMG 2-2 KOE | 6.8% | |
| BMG 1-0 KOE | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.1 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BMG goals · Columns: KOE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).