BMG vs RBL
Borussia Mönchengladbach (home) vs RB Leipzig · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BMG win 23.4% fair 4.28
Draw 19.4% fair 5.16
RBL win 57.2% fair 1.75
Expected Goals
BMG
1.39
—
2.42
RBL
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.3% | fair 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26.7% | fair 3.74 |
| Both teams to score | 68.4% | fair 1.46 |
Most Likely Scores
| BMG 1-2 RBL | 9.0% | |
| BMG 1-1 RBL | 7.4% | |
| BMG 1-3 RBL | 7.3% | |
| BMG 0-2 RBL | 6.5% | |
| BMG 2-2 RBL | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 2.5 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 3.4 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 2.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BMG goals · Columns: RBL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).