BMG vs B04
Borussia Mönchengladbach (home) vs Bayer Leverkusen · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BMG win 25.7% fair 3.90
Draw 20.1% fair 4.97
B04 win 54.2% fair 1.84
Expected Goals
BMG
1.45
—
2.31
B04
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.4% | fair 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.6% | fair 3.62 |
| Both teams to score | 68.9% | fair 1.45 |
Most Likely Scores
| BMG 1-2 B04 | 9.0% | |
| BMG 1-1 B04 | 7.8% | |
| BMG 1-3 B04 | 6.9% | |
| BMG 2-2 B04 | 6.5% | |
| BMG 0-2 B04 | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 2.9 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BMG goals · Columns: B04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).