BMG vs M05
Borussia Mönchengladbach (home) vs Mainz 05 · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
BMG win 42.6% fair 2.34
Draw 24.8% fair 4.04
M05 win 32.6% fair 3.07
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.4% / 24.9% / 32.7%.
Expected Goals
BMG
1.53
—
1.31
M05
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.1% | fair 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.9% | fair 2.18 |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| BMG 1-1 M05 | 11.7% | |
| BMG 2-1 M05 | 9.0% | |
| BMG 1-0 M05 | 8.9% | |
| BMG 1-2 M05 | 7.7% | |
| BMG 0-1 M05 | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BMG goals · Columns: M05 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).