BMG vs SCP
Borussia Mönchengladbach (home) vs SC Paderborn · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BMG win 45.3% fair 2.21
Draw 23.5% fair 4.26
SCP win 31.2% fair 3.20
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.5% / 23.4% / 31.1%.
Expected Goals
BMG
1.73
—
1.40
SCP
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.5% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.5% | fair 2.53 |
| Both teams to score | 61.9% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| BMG 1-1 SCP | 10.6% | |
| BMG 2-1 SCP | 9.2% | |
| BMG 1-0 SCP | 7.6% | |
| BMG 1-2 SCP | 7.4% | |
| BMG 2-0 SCP | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.6 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BMG goals · Columns: SCP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).