BMG vs SCP
Borussia Mönchengladbach (home) vs SC Paderborn · model confidence 64%
Match Outcome
BMG win 50.4% fair 1.98
Draw 22.8% fair 4.39
SCP win 26.8% fair 3.73
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 52.2% / 22.5% / 25.4%.
Expected Goals
BMG
1.89
—
1.26
SCP
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.8% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.2% | fair 2.55 |
| Both teams to score | 60.7% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| BMG 1-1 SCP | 10.2% | |
| BMG 2-1 SCP | 9.6% | |
| BMG 1-0 SCP | 8.1% | |
| BMG 2-0 SCP | 7.7% | |
| BMG 1-2 SCP | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BMG goals · Columns: SCP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).