BMG vs S04
Borussia Mönchengladbach (home) vs Schalke 04 · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BMG win 42.8% fair 2.34
Draw 24.6% fair 4.06
S04 win 32.6% fair 3.07
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.6% / 24.7% / 32.7%.
Expected Goals
BMG
1.55
—
1.32
S04
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.3% | fair 2.21 |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| BMG 1-1 S04 | 11.6% | |
| BMG 2-1 S04 | 9.0% | |
| BMG 1-0 S04 | 8.8% | |
| BMG 1-2 S04 | 7.7% | |
| BMG 0-1 S04 | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BMG goals · Columns: S04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).