BMG vs VFB
Borussia Mönchengladbach (home) vs VfB Stuttgart · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BMG win 29.0% fair 3.45
Draw 21.4% fair 4.68
VFB win 49.6% fair 2.01
Expected Goals
BMG
1.48
—
2.09
VFB
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.3% | fair 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.7% | fair 3.26 |
| Both teams to score | 67.7% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| BMG 1-2 VFB | 9.1% | |
| BMG 1-1 VFB | 8.7% | |
| BMG 2-2 VFB | 6.7% | |
| BMG 2-1 VFB | 6.4% | |
| BMG 1-3 VFB | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BMG goals · Columns: VFB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).