BMG vs FCU
Borussia Mönchengladbach (home) vs Union Berlin · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BMG win 44.3% fair 2.26
Draw 23.5% fair 4.26
FCU win 32.2% fair 3.10
Expected Goals
BMG
1.72
—
1.44
FCU
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.0% | fair 2.57 |
| Both teams to score | 62.5% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| BMG 1-1 FCU | 10.5% | |
| BMG 2-1 FCU | 9.0% | |
| BMG 1-2 FCU | 7.6% | |
| BMG 1-0 FCU | 7.3% | |
| BMG 2-2 FCU | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.5 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BMG goals · Columns: FCU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).