HSV vs FCA
Hamburger SV (home) vs FC Augsburg · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HSV win 38.2% fair 2.62
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
FCA win 38.0% fair 2.63
Expected Goals
HSV
1.54
—
1.58
FCA
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.4% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.6% | fair 2.52 |
| Both teams to score | 62.4% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| HSV 1-1 FCA | 10.7% | |
| HSV 1-2 FCA | 8.5% | |
| HSV 2-1 FCA | 8.3% | |
| HSV 0-1 FCA | 7.0% | |
| HSV 1-0 FCA | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: HSV goals · Columns: FCA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).