HSV vs BAY
Hamburger SV (home) vs Bayern Munich · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HSV win 12.7% fair 7.88
Draw 14.7% fair 6.82
BAY win 72.7% fair 1.38
Expected Goals
HSV
0.95
—
2.87
BAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.4% | fair 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26.6% | fair 3.76 |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| HSV 0-2 BAY | 9.1% | |
| HSV 0-3 BAY | 8.7% | |
| HSV 1-2 BAY | 8.6% | |
| HSV 1-3 BAY | 8.2% | |
| HSV 0-1 BAY | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 6.3 |
| 1 | 2.1 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 6.0 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HSV goals · Columns: BAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).