HSV vs BAY
Hamburger SV (home) vs Bayern Munich · model confidence 81%
Match Outcome
HSV win 15.8% fair 6.32
Draw 16.5% fair 6.08
BAY win 67.7% fair 1.48
Expected Goals
HSV
1.06
—
2.71
BAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.6% | fair 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.4% | fair 3.64 |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| HSV 1-2 BAY | 9.0% | |
| HSV 0-2 BAY | 8.5% | |
| HSV 1-3 BAY | 8.1% | |
| HSV 0-3 BAY | 7.7% | |
| HSV 1-1 BAY | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 4.8 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 5.1 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 2.7 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: HSV goals · Columns: BAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).