HSV vs SVW
Hamburger SV (home) vs Werder Bremen · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HSV win 41.5% fair 2.41
Draw 24.5% fair 4.09
SVW win 34.1% fair 2.94
Expected Goals
HSV
1.54
—
1.39
SVW
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.8% | fair 2.28 |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| HSV 1-1 SVW | 11.4% | |
| HSV 2-1 SVW | 8.8% | |
| HSV 1-0 SVW | 8.2% | |
| HSV 1-2 SVW | 7.9% | |
| HSV 0-1 SVW | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.4 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: HSV goals · Columns: SVW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).