HSV vs BVB
Hamburger SV (home) vs Borussia Dortmund · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HSV win 21.9% fair 4.56
Draw 22.9% fair 4.36
BVB win 55.1% fair 1.81
Expected Goals
HSV
0.95
—
1.82
BVB
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.7% | fair 2.10 |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | fair 1.94 |
Most Likely Scores
| HSV 0-1 BVB | 11.4% | |
| HSV 1-1 BVB | 10.9% | |
| HSV 0-2 BVB | 10.4% | |
| HSV 1-2 BVB | 9.9% | |
| HSV 0-0 BVB | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 11.4 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HSV goals · Columns: BVB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).