HSV vs ELV
Hamburger SV (home) vs SV Elversberg · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HSV win 44.6% fair 2.24
Draw 23.6% fair 4.23
ELV win 31.8% fair 3.15
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 44.7% / 23.6% / 31.7%.
Expected Goals
HSV
1.70
—
1.40
ELV
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.8% | fair 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.2% | fair 2.49 |
| Both teams to score | 61.5% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| HSV 1-1 ELV | 10.7% | |
| HSV 2-1 ELV | 9.1% | |
| HSV 1-0 ELV | 7.7% | |
| HSV 1-2 ELV | 7.5% | |
| HSV 2-0 ELV | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: HSV goals · Columns: ELV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).