HSV vs SGE
Hamburger SV (home) vs Eintracht Frankfurt · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HSV win 40.0% fair 2.50
Draw 23.0% fair 4.35
SGE win 37.0% fair 2.70
Expected Goals
HSV
1.70
—
1.65
SGE
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.0% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.0% | fair 2.86 |
| Both teams to score | 66.0% | fair 1.51 |
Most Likely Scores
| HSV 1-1 SGE | 9.8% | |
| HSV 2-1 SGE | 8.3% | |
| HSV 1-2 SGE | 8.1% | |
| HSV 2-2 SGE | 6.9% | |
| HSV 1-0 SGE | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: HSV goals · Columns: SGE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).